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IMA Journal of Mathematical Control and Information 2000 17(1):1-13; doi:10.1093/imamci/17.1.1
© 2000 by Institute of Mathematics and its Applications
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Approaches to the space-time modelling of infectious disease behaviour

ANDREW B. LAWSON and PETRA LEIMICH

Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Aberdeen Aberdeen, UK
Mathematical Sciences Division, University of Abertay Dundee Dundee, UK

A new approach to the space-time modelling of infectious diseases is considered. A modulated heterogeneous Poisson process with intensity defined as a function of a two-dimensional susceptibility field is proposed. The model is fitted to a measles epidemic using a proportional hazards approximation.

Keywords: spatial; epidemic; temporal; likelihood; measles; infective; susceptible.


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